A win probability chart shows how each team's likelihood of winning evolves over the course of a game. The line starts near 50% and fluctuates based on scoring events, ultimately reaching 100% or 0% at game end. The area above and below the 50% baseline is filled with team colors to convey momentum at a glance. This visualization is widely used across major sports for post-game analysis and live broadcasting.
# anyplot.ai
# line-win-probability: Win Probability Chart
# Library: makie 0.22.10 | Julia 1.11.9
# Quality: 88/100 | Created: 2026-06-21
using CairoMakie
using Colors
using Random
Random.seed!(42)
# Theme tokens (Imprint palette, theme-adaptive chrome)
const THEME = get(ENV, "ANYPLOT_THEME", "light")
const PAGE_BG = THEME == "light" ? colorant"#FAF8F1" : colorant"#1A1A17"
const ELEVATED_BG = THEME == "light" ? colorant"#FFFDF6" : colorant"#242420"
const INK = THEME == "light" ? colorant"#1A1A17" : colorant"#F0EFE8"
const INK_SOFT = THEME == "light" ? colorant"#4A4A44" : colorant"#B8B7B0"
const INK_MUTED = THEME == "light" ? colorant"#6B6A63" : colorant"#A8A79F"
# Imprint palette — home uses position 1 (brand green, first-series rule), away uses position 3
const HOME_COLOR = colorant"#009E73" # Imprint position 1 — Lakeside Wolves (home)
const AWAY_COLOR = colorant"#4467A3" # Imprint position 3 — Harbor Eagles (away); skip pos 2 (lavender) — blue reads as adversarial contrast to home green
# Data: NBA playoff game, 200 play-by-play win-probability snapshots over 48 minutes
n_points = 200
game_time = collect(range(0.0, 48.0, length=n_points))
win_prob = zeros(n_points)
win_prob[1] = 0.52 # slight home-court advantage at tip-off
for i in 2:n_points
t = (i - 1) / (n_points - 1)
# Q1: home builds early lead; Q2: home extends; Q3: Eagles surge; Q4: Wolves hold
if t < 0.25
drift = 0.0035
elseif t < 0.50
drift = 0.0010
elseif t < 0.75
drift = -0.0028
else
drift = 0.0018
end
win_prob[i] = clamp(win_prob[i-1] + drift + randn() * 0.020, 0.04, 0.96)
end
# Quarter-boundary times (minute 12 = end of Q1, 24 = end of Q2, 36 = end of Q3)
quarter_times = [12.0, 24.0, 36.0]
quarter_labels = ["Q2", "Q3", "Q4"]
# Key scoring events to annotate
event_times = [9.0, 26.5, 42.5]
event_descs = ["Wolves 10–0 run", "Eagles 14–2 surge", "Eagles complete comeback"]
event_idx = [round(Int, t / 48.0 * (n_points - 1)) + 1 for t in event_times]
event_probs = win_prob[event_idx]
# Band fill split at the 50% line
home_upper = max.(win_prob, 0.5) # home region: wp → 0.5 floor when below
away_lower = min.(win_prob, 0.5) # away region: wp → 0.5 ceiling when above
# Figure
fig = Figure(
size = (1600, 900),
fontsize = 14,
backgroundcolor = PAGE_BG,
)
ax = Axis(
fig[1, 1];
title = "line-win-probability · julia · makie · anyplot.ai",
titlesize = 20,
titlecolor = INK,
titlefont = :bold,
xlabel = "Game Time (minutes)",
ylabel = "Win Probability",
xlabelsize = 14,
ylabelsize = 14,
xlabelcolor = INK,
ylabelcolor = INK,
xticklabelsize = 12,
yticklabelsize = 12,
xticklabelcolor = INK_SOFT,
yticklabelcolor = INK_SOFT,
xtickcolor = INK_SOFT,
ytickcolor = INK_SOFT,
backgroundcolor = PAGE_BG,
topspinevisible = false,
rightspinevisible = false,
leftspinecolor = INK_SOFT,
bottomspinecolor = INK_SOFT,
xgridvisible = false,
ygridvisible = true,
ygridcolor = RGBAf(INK.r, INK.g, INK.b, 0.12),
xticks = ([0, 12, 24, 36, 48], ["0", "12", "24", "36", "48"]),
yticks = ([0.0, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.0], ["0%", "25%", "50%", "75%", "100%"]),
)
xlims!(ax, 0.0, 48.0)
ylims!(ax, 0.0, 1.0)
# Fill: home region above 50% (brand green)
band!(ax, game_time, fill(0.5, n_points), home_upper;
color = (HOME_COLOR, 0.22))
# Fill: away region below 50% (blue)
band!(ax, game_time, away_lower, fill(0.5, n_points);
color = (AWAY_COLOR, 0.22))
# 50% reference line (prominent separator, per spec)
hlines!(ax, [0.5]; color = INK_SOFT, linewidth = 1.8)
# Win probability line
lines!(ax, game_time, win_prob; color = INK, linewidth = 2.0)
# Q1 label at far left
text!(ax, 0.5, 0.975;
text = "Q1",
fontsize = 12,
color = INK_MUTED,
align = (:left, :top))
# Quarter dividers and labels (Q2, Q3, Q4 at minutes 12, 24, 36)
for (t, lbl) in zip(quarter_times, quarter_labels)
vlines!(ax, [t]; color = (INK_SOFT, 0.45), linewidth = 1.0, linestyle = :dash)
text!(ax, t + 0.4, 0.975;
text = lbl,
fontsize = 12,
color = INK_MUTED,
align = (:left, :top))
end
# Key event markers: dot on the line + annotation
for (t, lbl, p) in zip(event_times, event_descs, event_probs)
scatter!(ax, [t], [p];
color = INK,
markersize = 10,
strokecolor = PAGE_BG,
strokewidth = 1.5)
y_pos = p > 0.5 ? p + 0.07 : p - 0.07
y_pos = clamp(y_pos, 0.06, 0.90)
va = p > 0.5 ? :bottom : :top
text!(ax, t, y_pos;
text = lbl,
fontsize = 12,
color = INK_MUTED,
align = (:center, va))
end
# Team labels in their respective probability regions
text!(ax, 1.0, 0.88;
text = "Lakeside Wolves (home)",
fontsize = 13,
color = HOME_COLOR,
align = (:left, :center))
text!(ax, 1.0, 0.12;
text = "Harbor Eagles (away)",
fontsize = 13,
color = AWAY_COLOR,
align = (:left, :center))
# Final score annotation
text!(ax, 47.5, 0.975;
text = "Final: Eagles 104 · Wolves 98",
fontsize = 12,
color = INK_MUTED,
align = (:right, :top))
# Save
save("plot-$(THEME).png", fig; px_per_unit = 2)
Part of Win Probability Chart on anyplot.ai.